• JL

1.14 Picks

New Members

· If you do not have the spreadsheets, then let me know. There are just dumbed down versions of what we actually use to track our bets.

· For now we work off the 1% of bankroll for 1 unit. As football season comes to an end we will shift towards a slightly different system just because there won’t be so many picks.

· If your minimum to bet is less than 1% dm me and we can work out a system that works for you.

· Picks will come out at least an hour before game time. On weekdays that should be around 4pm. If there is an early game I will post it in the discord or send an email with plenty of time.

· If possible, have at least two books. This really helps shopping lines and prop bets

GENERAL

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Today


  • We have been riding this Bryant team all year and had pretty good success. We have usually taken their over or their team total though. Today grab the line at -4 before it goes to -4.5. Still like it at 4.5 but if you can grab it this morning at -4 do it. Bryan’s win streak is now seven straight and 10 of 11 for the Rhode Islanders after their sweep of Central Connecticut last week, and now looking like the clear team to beat in the Northeast. Tallying a robust 91.4 ppg, Bryant ranks fourth nationally in scoring, rarified air for what has been an obscure program near the bottom of the low-major ranks. Not this season, however, as HC Jared Grasso has hit the jackpot in the transfer market, with ex-Rutgers 6-5 wing Peter Kiss (17.8 ppg) appearing a dominant force in the NEC< while juco G Chris Childs (15.6 ppg) has emerged as a bombardier deluxe as he hits nearly 47% beyond the arc. Along with holdover Gs Michael Green III (Bulldog-best 18 ppg) versatile Charles Pride (13.1 ppg, also 7.1 rpg) and a physical post presence in 6-8, 250-lb. Hall Elisias (7.2 rpg), there are many dimensions on the surprisingly-good roster. Not as much to cheer about for the alma mater of Maurice Stokes and Kevin Porter, as St. Francis hasn’t won since a stunner on opening night at Pitt. Six losses in a row (SU and vs. the line) have ensued, and the Red Flash look hard-pressed to keep pace in Loretto with an offense scoring only 64 ppg, and five of those last six losses by double-digit margins. I think there is some value here since Bryant didn’t cover their last game.


  • I know the Hornets let us down last night when they came out flat, but Toronto is not a good team. This is just too many points. Take the 8.5 with the Hornets.

  • We have not done well when a team has had huge Covid sit outs. If you need to play the Heat / 76ers game, take the 76ers 1st half or the Heat in the game. Just too many points. Also like Embiid over rebounds prop. The Heat will again be without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in addition to key guards Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn. Miami was able to get to OT in a game it should've won with Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson firing away. Kelly Olynyk and Gabe Vincent are also offensive players who aren't going to get stops with Tobias Harris back and Philadelphia at full strength again.

  • If you play a total in a Blazers game you have to play the over. It cashed for us last night but just don’t feel great about taking it tonight.

  • FIU/FAU - These rivals are squaring off for the first time this season and enter the first of two showdowns over the next three nights as two of the four Conference USA teams averaging over 80 points per game. Rice (81.9 ppg) and Marshall (80.3) are the other teams currently ranked among C-USA’s highest-scoring teams, but of the four, FAU operates at the slowest pace. Head coaches Jeremy Ballard and Dusty May each took over their respective programs in 2018 and have played five times. The 2018-19 matchups all topped 152 or more points while last season’s were both low-scoring. The Owls have won only once and are an underdog on the road in Miami against a Panthers team that ranks third in the nation with 11.8 3-pointers per game, fourth in attempts from beyond the arc and fifth in the country in steals. FAU has beaten up on non-D-I’s and has lost six of seven against teams at its level, defeating only North Florida back on Dec. 7. Outside of star senior forward Jaylin Ingram and Minnesota B.J. Greenlee, FAU has lacked consistency. With guard Antonio Daye, Jr. at the controls, look for this first meeting to potentially result in a double-digit win and lay the points. Ride Florida International.

  • Denver game overs are 9-2. Our model has this team total at 120-116.95 so just enough for us to take Denver’s team total.


Small card today. A lot of things we really like, but few we really want to pull the trigger on. Even the Hornet’s pick is a pretty good gamble.



Forgot to add the Embiid prop but that is only really just a personal bet. Do with it what you want.



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